Thursday 4 february 2021, the Center for Doctrine and Command Teaching (CDEC) will organize a military thinking conference at 2pm in the Amphitheater Foch, Ecole Militaire.
In a world with ever-changing threats and a looming, hardly predictable specter of war, the Army intends to reflect on the notion of unpredictability.
Unpredictability is widely considered a negative “unavoidable issue” but we want to see it as a collective ambition. Our goal is to take away unpredictability from the enemy’s hand and harness it in any level of operations, even highintensity. The technological environment is constantly evolving and it is rendering the battlefield more assessable. The ground forces are willing to clear the “fog of war” obscuring their action while fueling the one obscuring the enemy.
Regarding the ground forces maneuver, the unpredictability of our forces should be considered as a gain of initiative in the tangible, untangible and reality perception fields.
It enhances the tactical commander’s freedom of action and conversely hinders the enemy’s freedom of action with a maelstrom of dilemma.
2 questions come forth:
- How to defend against the unpredictability of different threats and risks?
- How to set in motion unpredictability in the face of an adversary?
|See the teaser|
|Download the program|
Round table n°1
Unpredictability in the Army from 2035 onwards
The first roundtable will define the concept of unpredictability (conditions, features, and principles), the consequences and the ways to implement with concrete facts (historical examples). As it creates freedom of action, the speakers will debate on its contribution to tactical success. Then, they will debate about whether it is a new operational superiority factor or an additional principle of war.
Round table n°2
How to set in motion unpredictability within the future ground maneuver?
The second roundtable will detail unpredictability’s underlying tangible and intangible effects (surprise, confusion, deception, intoxication…), the means to protect from unpredictability and to “challenge” the adversary’s decision-making process. The speakers will debate about the means to train and educate commanders regarding unpredictability. Moreover, they will also discuss the possibility to integrate allies and partners within this framework.